2026 Market Outlook & Risk Warnings-silicone rubber
2026 Market Outlook & Risk Warnings
Central Sentence: The silicone market will maintain a tight supply-demand balance in Q2 2026, prices are expected to remain high and firm, but market participants need to be vigilant against multiple potential risks and make reasonable operational arrangements.
Industry analysts generally believe that the domestic and international silicone market will continue to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the second quarter of 2026, and prices will remain at a high level. On the supply side, the global silicone capacity expansion cycle has basically ended, and only one 100,000-ton/year new high-purity silicone monomer project is scheduled to be put into production in China from 2025 to 2026, and the new supply increment is extremely limited. Coupled with the impact of European capacity reduction and domestic environmental protection production restrictions, the overall supply of the silicone market will remain tight. On the demand side, the peak season of infrastructure and real estate construction in the second quarter will drive the release of rigid demand for architectural silicone, and the sustained growth of new energy and electronic manufacturing will continue to drive the demand for high-end silicone. Under the dual support of supply and demand, the prices of core products such as DMC and 107 glue are expected to remain above 14,000 RMB/ton and 15,000 RMB/ton respectively, and the market will maintain a stable and firm operation trend.
However, the silicone market still faces multiple potential risks in the second quarter, which require market participants to pay close attention and take preventive measures. First, the risk of weaker-than-expected downstream demand, if the recovery of the real estate industry is slow or the growth of new energy vehicle sales slows down, it will directly affect the demand for silicone products. Second, the intensified export pressure after the cancellation of the export tax rebate may lead to a backlog of domestic supply and increase the pressure on price stability. Third, the volatility of upstream raw material prices such as metal silicon and energy prices may bring uncertainty to the production cost of silicone enterprises. In view of this, industry insiders suggest that market participants should maintain reasonable inventory levels, avoid blind hoarding and high-risk procurement, optimize customer structure, focus on cooperation with high-quality customers in high-end fields, increase R&D investment in high-value-added products, and actively respond to industry changes and risks through product upgrading and structural optimization to achieve stable and sustainable operation.
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